Antidote to “teh stupid”

When following political news on the internet, at times “teh stupid” seems to overwhelm everything. Then, periodically, one is rewarded with a piece that offers some real insight, or a useful perspective on something:

THE NEW REPUBLIC | Blogs

Tonights results will matter a lot, of course. But only up to a point. It seems quite likely that Hillary will win Ohio and at least come close in Texas, and perhaps win the primary there. Under most of the likely scenarios, it does not sound like she has any intention of folding her tent voluntarily, even though the delegate math remains awful for her.

Thats why I think tonight may matter less than the aftermath in the second half of this week. I assume were going to see a ferocious push by the Obama campaign to create a climate of opinion that demands Hillarys exit.

I feel like Ronald “there’s gotta be a pony in there somewhere” Reagan. :)

My predictions for the day: Obama winning by 5+ points in Texas, and more narrowly in Ohio (thanks to a better ground game and bad weather keeping Hillary’s old folks home). Per convention wisdom, Obama wins Vermont (with 60+ percent) and Clinton takes Rhode Island.

Other folks have predictions?

Trackbacks & Pings

  1. Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator on 04 Mar 2008 at 3:46 pm

    NASA’s popularity rises as vote nears…

    In the countdown to Tuesday’s Texas primary, the candidates still in the race are positioning themse…

Comments

  1. CDR Salamander wrote:

    No way I am guessing anything….but for the spectacle of it all - I would want Hillary to win so I could watch a brokered convention — but I really want to get past the Clinton era…so it would be nice if Obama would win.

    I don’t trust any of the polls right now.

    Posted 04 Mar 2008 at 1:35 pm

  2. dougie smooth wrote:

    Hillary is going to take Ohio. Her victimization act will have been enough to swing the sympathy vote in a redux of New Hampshire. And then we’re never going to hear the end of how Ohio is the bellwether of the general election and therefore everyone wants her to be the nominee.

    Since the delegate spread isn’t going to budge, the only thing that matters today is whose spin gets more traction.

    Incidentally, my behavioral analysis of the left-leaning electorate [of which I am a part] is that they prefer an underdog to a winner. This is why Barry Obama is having such a hard time closing the deal every time he catapults past her. She’ll win a couple states today, then people will be happy for her and promptly give Obama landslide victories in the subsequent primaries.

    Posted 04 Mar 2008 at 2:26 pm

  3. Pigilito wrote:

    The H-beast wins by about 5 points in Ohio (the weather isn’t bad enough to keep folks away - I know as I just voted), and loses by by a razor thin margin in Texas.

    I’ve come to accept that nothing will force her out until she loses Pennsyvannia - if she does lose, that is. She seemingly has plenty of cash and can always count on a fair percentage of the vote. And we have yet to see her go truly negative on Obama. More importaantly, the press looks to be ready to provide some harsh coverage of Obama, and resurrect the “comeback kid” theme for her.

    Only a drying up of funding will force her out before Pennsylvannia.

    Posted 04 Mar 2008 at 4:46 pm

  4. Alon Levy wrote:

    And we have yet to see her go truly negative on Obama.

    God help us if that is true.

    Posted 05 Mar 2008 at 5:19 am

« Why I will never be a real lefty
Donna Brazile gets tough; Numbers don’t lie »