Electability
I must preface this post with a reference to President Dukakis, who was leading then-VP George H.W. Bush by 17 points in July, 1988.
Thus duly noting the ephemeral nature of polls, I have been struck by the consistent advantage, relative to Sen. Clinton, that Obama has been showing in swing state match-ups recently (Feb 17-27) at RCP, most recent polls first:
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Clinton - Clinton +2
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +2 … BO relative adv: 0
New Mexico: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +12
New Mexico: McCain vs. Obama - Tie … BO relative adv: +12
Iowa: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +9
Iowa: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +17 … BO relative adv: +26
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +1
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama - McCain +3 … BO relative adv: -2
Oregon: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +8
Oregon: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +1 … BO relative adv: +9
Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton - Clinton +10
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +3 … BO relative adv: -7
Virginia: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +10
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama - McCain +5 … BO relative adv: +5
Iowa: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +10
Iowa: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +3 … BO relative adv: +13
New Jersey: McCain vs. Clinton - Clinton +6
New Jersey: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +7 … BO relative adv: +1
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Clinton - Tie
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama - McCain +1 … BO relative adv: -1
Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +3
Ohio: McCain vs. Obama - McCain +1 … BO relative adv: +2
Michigan: McCain vs. Clinton - Tie
Michigan: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +8 … BO relative adv: +8
Virginia: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +3
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +6 … BO relative adv: +9
Iowa: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +11
Iowa: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +10 … BO relative adv: +21
Florida: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +6
Florida: McCain vs. Obama - McCain +16 … BO relative adv: -10
Minnesota: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +5
Minnesota: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +15 … BO relative adv: +20
Wisconsin: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +7
Wisconsin: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +10 … BO relative adv: +17
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +2
Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +10 … BO relative adv: +12
Oregon: McCain vs. Clinton - McCain +3
Oregon: McCain vs. Obama - Obama +9 … BO relative adv: +12
So Obama seems to have a consistent, clear edge in NM, IA, OR, VA, MI, MN, and WI.
Neither Dem candidate shows any significant, consistent advantage in NJ, OH, or PA.
Clinton seems stronger in FL.
Overall, quite striking. (I’ll send a copy to former President Dukakis.) And, it’s fair to note that OH, PA, and FL have been the three largest, closest battlegrounds of the last two elections. Obama’s advantage lies in seven medium-sized & smaller states.
Early Head-to-Head Matchups
When Clinton Sock Puppets Attack
Hackett Quits Politics