The Delegate math at politburo diktat 2.0

The Delegate math

First Read - msnbc.com seems to have the most readable numbers. For two reasons. One, unlike the NYTimes and some other sources, they are willing to make reasonable calculations about how theoretically unassigned delegates will be allocated. Two, their superdelegate count tracks closely with Demconwatch (which is the only source of unambiguous, name-by-name, superdel counts).

After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185.

That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276.

Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won’t be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%.

That last bit is a little terse. Neither candidate is going to get to 2025 without superdelegates. So the 65% is not very meaningful. But if Obama gets 48% of all remaining pledged and super delegates, then he wins, i.e. he gets to 2025.

On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% — SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK…

Barring a collapse by Obama, a “macaca-moment” if you will, the arithmetic for Clinton is prohibitive.

It will be interesting to see what happens on the superdelegate front before March 4. Obama has a team of Congress-critters, led by Tom Daschle and Rosa DiLauro, arm-twisting the superdelegates right now. I think the argument is pretty simple. It goes like this: “We will welcome your support, and the support of any Americans, in the general election. But if you want to be considered as someone who joined our campaign early, well then, it’s getting late. Before March 4, i.e. within the next two weeks, is still “early,” if that’s how you would like to be considered by an Obama presidency. Otherwise, we look forward to receiving your support at some late date, along with millions of other Americans.”

As for the African-American superdelegates who are supporting Clinton, they’ve gotta figure out what they want to do very soon. African-Americans have been waiting for this day for 150 years, and now some of them want to sit on the sidelines? Or go with the other side?