Super Delegates, Super Tuesday, and Super Ted

Forecasting the Democratic nomination battle is tough; clearly the Clintons have the advantage. Intrade shows the betting to be almost 2 to 1 in favor of The Borg.

But here’s my attempt to lay it out as I see it now. Clinton has about a ten point lead in the national polls, and a bigger lead than that in many of the large Super Tuesday states (e.g. CA, NY, MA, NJ). Obama should get a bump out of South Carolina, from the negative press coverage of Bill’s role, and from the endorsement of Ted Kennedy. Nonetheless, in only nine days, with distractions like the SOTU address, the debate1, and the Super Bowl on Sunday, it will be very tough to make up all that ground in so many states in such a short time.

Since Obama is behind, and it will be tough to get even, then the question becomes, how well does he have to do? Or, what result can he survive? I’ll note here that the rest of February offers a more promising schedule for Obama, nowhere near as many delegates, but some states where he might do well.

A candidate will need 2,025 delegates to win at the Democratic Convention. RCP shows Clinton leading Obama right now, 250 to 180, which includes Super Delegates; that gives her a 70 delegate advantage. Not too significant right now.

On Super Tuesday, 1,688 delegates from 22 states will be in play. I suggest that if Obama can stay within 100 delegates of Clinton that day, he will be in decent shape. So, just for example, if the count looks like Clinton 850, Obama 750, and Edwards 88, that’s not too bad for Obama. If Clinton has a margin over 200, (e.g. Clinton 900, Obama 700, Edwards 88) then it’s pretty much over. She would then have an overall edge of 270 delegates, and would not be stoppable in the later, smaller primaries.

An important piece here is the Dems proportional allocation of delegates. There are no winner-take-all states. As long as a candidate collects 15% in a Congressional District or state, he gets his share. Right now, Edwards is flirting with that 15% viability, taken overall. most likely he will be viable in a lot of places, and not be viable in others. Thus, he is not likely to get 15% of all the delegates that day, even if he gets 15% of the popular vote.2

After Super Tuesday, if Clinton has a large lead, the arithmetic will be inexorable. But if not, if Obama keeps it within 100 delegates, and he comes in first in a good number of states, other than Illinois and Georgia, then he can go forward … and look to the Super Delegates. Obama’s most promising Super Tuesday states are Illinois, 2 Southern states (Alabama & Georgia), 4 “Swing” states where he has invested a lot of staff (Missouri, Colorado,3 Kansas, Minnesota), and (now, with Ted) Massachusetts. Also, he will have to pick up a lot of delegates in heavily African-American districts of New York, New Jersey, and California.

There are almost 800 Super Delegates, party officials and leaders who will be seated at the convention and can vote for anyone they want. Details at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. So far, Hillary has about 200 of them and Obama 100. Looking at the remaining 500, it would be misleading to view them as Party loyalists already in the bag for Clinton. Wrong. Both candidates have been working the Super Delegates for over a year. All the low-hanging fruit is gone. The 500 fence-sitters presumably are sincerely undecided at this time. They will want to go for the candidate they think will do best in the general election, especially in their own state.

And that’s Obama’s path. Hold down the losses on Super Tuesday. Do better in the later smaller states, and show the Super Delegates that he is the candidate who can lead the party to victory in November.

Thus, “Super Ted.” More than anyone else, except perhaps for the Goracle, his endorsement lends Obama the ‘cred’ he needs amongst the Super Delegates. It says that Obama is a real candidate, a serious candidate, someone who can win.

This whole plan is against the odds, not an absurd long-shot, but definitely a view that requires some Hope.

  1. not a “distraction” per se, but a high profile event that tends not to work in Obama’s favor [↩]
  2. There’s no way to gauge whether Edwards draws more from Clinton or Obama. There’s been some talk of Edwards and Obama cooperating, naming him AG, etc.. I don’t know if that’s so. But, if they are cooperating, since the goal of Super Tuesday is to keep Hillary’s totals down, then Edwards should stay in. Even if he draws from them equally, that would be good for Obama. Maybe Edwards will focus on places like Oklahoma and Tennessee, where’s he relatively strong and Obama will cede those to him and Hillary. [↩]
  3. Here is a new Colorado poll, showing Obama with a slight lead. I stress that polls in most of the other 22 states show Hillary with double-digit leads. [↩]

Trackbacks & Pings

  1. Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator on 27 Jan 2008 at 11:03 pm

    Obama Easily Wins South Carolina Primary…

    Democratic Sen. Barack Obama easily won the hard-fought South Carolina Democratic primary Saturday, …

Comments

  1. Grim wrote:

    Normally what one does when the weaker candidate reaches an agreement with the stronger is to withdraw and endorse — “throw your support,” as they say. If Edwards were drawing equally from Hillary and Obama, but could throw most of his support to Obama, the sensible thing for Obama would be to ask him to withdraw.

    I think Edwards is still in the Edwards camp — hoping that Super Tuesday will leave him in an even stronger position, as kingmaker with delegates to burn. I don’t doubt that his loyalty is for sale, but I think he’s holding out for a higher price.

    Posted 28 Jan 2008 at 12:33 am

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