Poblano’s Super Tuesday Preview, with Delegate Projections

Daily Kos: Super Tuesday Preview, with Delegate Projections (1/15)

my weekly series previewing the Democratic primaries and caucuses on Tuesday, February 5th. I’ve compiled as much data as possible on the 22 states that are set to vote on Super Tuesday, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates.

Fairly exhaustive analysis, with demographics and polls (many of which go back to late 2007, but even those suggest relative strength.)

Poblano emphasizes the proportional aspect of the Democrats’ delegate selection; there are no winner-take-all states. Subject to 15% viability, it’s all proportional.

And finally, finally, finally … a realistic basis for some optimism in the Obama camp, if we look forward to a lengthy delegate fight. Suppose Obama holds his own on Super Tuesday, with 45% of the delegates. The remaining contests in February generally consist of states more favorable: Southern states, Kansas, and Washington. Also, as the calendar stretches out, he can campaign with his “retail politics” and medium-sized rallies, in those states.

So here’s the strategy: Hold on in the ad-based, media-only Super Tuesday, and then chip away again, state-by-state, in February and even into March.

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