Let’s Party Like it was 1984
The 1984 Democratic nomination contest featured three leading candidates: Walter Mondale (the establishment), Gary Hart (the outsider), and Jesse Jackson (the African-American).
With his message of “transcending race and politics” Obama really should not seek to cobble together these kind of identity coalitions, but the numbers from 1984 suggest what Obama is trying to do, i.e. put together the Hart and Jackson voters, leaving Clinton with the Mondale voters.
I realize I’m omitting Edwards from this; his numbers are low and most commenters agree that his presence in the contest is a wash. While he is clearly an activist outsider, thus cutting into Obama’s share of the “Hart” vote, his blue-collar appeal also draws from the “Mondale” voters.
The source data was from 2004; thus the primary dates. The numbers of delegates in 2008 will be roughly proportional to the numbers shown. I haven’t attempted to tie this data precisely to the 2008 calendar. It’s just a rough indicator.
Vermont Primary: 2004, 15 delegates
3/6/1984: Hart 71.1%, Mondale 20.3%, Jackson 7.9%
Massachusetts Primary: 2004, 93 delegates
3/13/1984: Hart 39.0%, Mondale 25.5%, McGovern 21.3%, Glenn 7.2%
Rhode Island Primary: 2004, 21 delegates
3/13/1984: Hart 45.0%, Mondale 34.5%, Jackson 8.7%, Glenn 5.1%, McGovern 4.8%
Georgia Primary: 2004, 86 delegates
3/13/1984: Mondale 30.5%, Hart 27.3%, Jackson 21.0%, Glenn 17.9%
Connecticut Primary: 2004, 49 delegates
3/27/1984: Hart 52.7%, Mondale 29.1%, Jackson 12.0%
New York Primary: 2004, 236 delegates
4/3/1984: Mondale 45.0%, Hart 27.6%, Jackson 25.7%
Wisconsin Primary: 2004, 72 delegates
4/3/1984: Hart 44.4%, Mondale 41.1%, Jackson 9.8%
Tennessee Primary: 2004, 69 delegates
5/1/1984: Mondale 41.0%, Hart 29.1%, Jackson 25.3%
District of Columbia: 2004, 16 delegates
5/1/1984: Jackson 67.3%, Mondale 25.6%, Hart 7.1%
Maryland Primary: 2004, 69 delegates
5/8/1984: Mondale 42.5%, Jackson 25.5%, Hart 24.3%
Ohio Primary: 2004, 140 delegates
5/8/1984: Hart 42.0%, Mondale 40.3%, Jackson 16.4%
California Primary: 2004, 370 delegates
6/5/1984: Hart 38.9%, Mondale 35.3%, Jackson 18.4%
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