I’ll need to check this with my evil leftist overlords, but the response is that civilian casualties are down because a) the ethnic cleansing is finished and b) the population itself has dropped 20% between casualties and refugees. Given the wild uncertainties in civilian casualty reporting anyway, I wouldn’t take civilian casualties alone as evidence of anything, especially in the face of more reliable contradictory evidence.

In any case, assuming the Surge did work, what now? There aren’t enough troops to sustain it, and there’s still no sign of national reconciliation. And you still have the problem of a government heavily influenced by the next country you’re trying as hard as you can to pick a fight with. Not even Rufus T. Firefly tried to start another war when he was still fighting in Sylvania.

You’re going a bit off the point here. While your reasons for the decrease in civilian casualties make sense, your evil leftist overlords are maintaining that such casualties are INCREASING — because of indiscriminate USAF carpet-bombing.

*no one that I know of, or whose opinions I respect on miltary matters.

This, of course, has been done before. As I often do, I would like to offer a quote that comes at the end of the Malay Emergency.

31 July 1960. In its Special Edition proclaiming the end of the Emergency, the Straits Times commented, “Perhaps there is no great point in recalling all the tragic and idiotic blunders, all the false optimism, all the unrealism of the first phases of the war, but it is not possible to appreciate fully the heroism of the Security Forces unless the stupidities of some of those in command are remembered.”

Everything could go south again - so I guess they can hope to hold out long enough….

It won’t take much to make this another record year for carnage.

Did the numbers drop in Sept? Yes, about 60% of average. (752 versus an average of 1855/month for the previous 8 months.) And October is on track for an even bigger drop. Yet they’ve been well above average during the rest of the year compared to previous years. Too early to tell if this is a trend or an aberration. I hope it’s a trend. Less killing is a good thing.

That doesn’t discount two facts: 1) airstrikes have seen a dramatic increase in the last nine months, a 435% increase over all of last year. 2) We don’t need as many troops on the ground if we’re doing the job from the air.

This isn’t just playing with numbers. This is a dramatic change, a fundamentally different strategy going on here — and it has zero compatibility with established COIN doctrine.

Note as well the number of monthly airstrikes have decreased over the last six weeks or so. While the year-to-date figures are startling, the monthly numbers tell the real story. In July alone we flew 303 sorties, more than we flew in all of 2006 (229). The September dip in civilian casualties coincides with a decrease in bombing runs, down to 90 sorties.

This ain’t rocket science, but rockets are indeed involved.

Is it working? Well, they you have to decide what working means and what the goals are — something beyond our (or Petreaus’) pay grade.

I’ll need to check this with my evil leftist overlords, but the response is that civilian casualties are down because a) the ethnic cleansing is finished and b) the population itself has dropped 20% between casualties and refugees.

I had a conference call with the general in charge of Iraq & Afghanistan on the NSC, and he very candidly

A Marine intel officer said that these two points are factors. But these points were factors before the precipitous drop as well. Increased security via surge, factors above and the tribal awakening movement are primary factors. In addition AQI has been operationally attrited to a huge degree, and the ratlines that brought in jihadis from Syria have been cut off by an alliance with a key tribe, whereas the lines via much of Iran are still open, but harder to move massive quantities through the mountainous border areas. Thus, jihadis can’t replenish themselves with manpower and supplies as they are being taken out by an american surge and local awakening of the population in 12 of 18 provinces.

How much longer do you see Sadr holding back? And if we are just beating up on his rivals while he waits in the wings, whats the long term implication for us? That dude seems to sitting pretty these days, just biding his time.

I really don’t know. If he feels he has a secure place in a post-America Iraq, he has a vested interest in lying low until we draw down, now that he’s established his heroic nationalist cred by fighting us in the past few years. Plus, isolating rogue JAM elements for some time lets him shape up his organization. But any predictions are predicated on Sadr being totally rational, and I can’t claim that. We’ll see? The surge is making it very tough for his boys to operate, in any event, and I think he realizes that if he makes noises at this point, Petraeus will go ahead and whack him.

PS - a couple odds/ends about previous comments: “unmitably” up there = “unmistakably”.

And the NSC General did not mention played out ethnic cleansing as a reason for less violence when I went back and checked my notes, though a Marine intel officer did. And certainly other folks agree with him.

(ed. - fixed)