Better Numbers from Iraq

Drop in American and Iraqi casualties hard to argue with

A month [after Petraus’ testimony, which some took issue with], there isn’t much room for such debate [on the decrease in violence], at least about the latest figures. In September, Iraqi civilian deaths were down 52 percent from August and 77 percent from September 2006, according to the Web site icasualties.org. The Iraqi Health Ministry and the Associated Press reported similar results. U.S. soldiers killed in action numbered 43 — down 43 percent from August and 64 percent from May, which had the highest monthly figure so far this year. The American combat death total was the lowest since July 2006 and was one of the five lowest monthly counts since the insurgency in Iraq took off in April 2004.

During the first 12 days of October the death rates of Iraqis and Americans fell still further.

This is good news. The editorial merits a full read.

Comments

  1. Grim wrote:

    I’m in Iraq now — Camp Victory — and I have to say that the Surge pressure is part of this. The other part is the expansion of the Anbar model outside of Anbar — what we are now calling the “Concerned Citizens” program. The model works, though of course (like all things in war) there are opportunity costs to it.

    Posted 15 Oct 2007 at 1:39 am

  2. Brian H wrote:

    The reality-based community is starting to look like the reality-undermined community.

    Posted 15 Oct 2007 at 9:32 am

  3. commissar wrote:

    Grim, Brian,

    We have to put this in perspective. There have been many, many “turning points,” and purple-finger moments in Iraq. We don’t really know if this decrease in violence is long-term or not.

    But let’s assume that it is, for discussion sake.

    The degree to which more troops, or better tactics & equipment, or de facto partition, or general Iraqi war-weariness, have contributed to the decline in violence will be endlessly debated.

    But if we are now looking at an Iraq with “sub-civil-war” violence, but no national political progress, a tense (and still violent) situation that might be upheld with an indefinite, but reduced, American troop presence …

    … then I’ll settle for that. With great relief.

    But all that would not be, in any sense, “victory,” or anything other than “the best we can get from a lousy situation.”

    Posted 15 Oct 2007 at 12:04 pm

  4. Grim wrote:

    “…but no national political progress…”

    In terms of progress at the level of the GOI, I realize things look stalled. If you can see up close, though, you see that there’s constant movement at the levels down below that. Right now, for example, there’s sheikhs’ conference going on in the IZ, including guys who are coming back from exile for the first time since 2003 — should be a big press conference at the end of it, though I don’t know if it’ll get news coverage or not. Last week, one of the Badr family went out to Anbar and talked with the Sunni figures.

    As we get increased harmoy among the communities making up Iraq, we’ll start to see the progress at the GOI level you’re wanting to see. The thing is, the GOI is very weak — it doesn’t drive national reality, but is driven by it. So it will follow, rather than lead, reconciliation.

    That’s a good thing, though, assuming reconciliation happens. A weak central government isn’t another Saddam, enforcing “peace” on the people at gunpoint. If we get there, and there is movement in that direction across Iraq and every week, it’ll be a real peace, with some real liberty and autonomy.

    I don’t know if that’s “victory” or not, but it’s better than lousy.

    Posted 17 Oct 2007 at 12:21 am

  5. a former european wrote:

    Its nice to see that this administration finally got its head out of its collective backside and began treating Iraq seriously. The way to develop a successful counter-insurgency program has been known for decades. Bush ignored those lessons and ignored the problem for far too long. Now that the insurgency problem is being addressed seriously and realistically, progress is being made. Even successful counter-insurgency programs are time-consuming — there are no “quick fixes” here.

    While I felt the Iraq insurgency was winnable and did not subscribe to the defeatist points of view out there, there is no question that Bush wasted several valuable years by putting his head in the sand and trying to wish away the problem. Rumsfeld and his shoestring approach didn’t help either. Bush fully deserves the criticism for his initial “pollyanna” strategy or lack of strategy, just as he deserves some small, grudging commendation for finally seeing the light even at this late date.

    Posted 17 Oct 2007 at 6:17 pm

  6. Grim wrote:

    Here’s something interesting: this conference isn’t the one I was talking about. I didn’t even know 1st Infantry Div. had one scheduled for yesterday at BIAP; the one I mentioned was hosted by the 10th Mountain Div. 2nd BCT, in the IZ.

    These bottom-up reconciliation movements are real. No doubt it’s hard work organizing these peace talks and getting competing neighbors to sign off on them, but it’s work that is getting done.

    Posted 19 Oct 2007 at 12:37 am

  7. canuckistani wrote:

    Well, I’m not going to click on the “Buy Iraqi Dinars” ads quite yet…

    BAGHDAD, Oct. 18 — Attempts by American-led reconstruction teams to forge political reconciliation, foster economic growth and build an effective police force and court system in Iraq have failed to show significant progress in nearly every one of the nation’s provincial regions and in the capital, a federal oversight agency reported on Thursday.
    The report, by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, comes as the United States tries to take advantage of a drop in overall violence to create a functioning government here.

    Of course, it was reported by the enemy so feel free to ignore it.

    Posted 19 Oct 2007 at 11:40 am

  8. Grim wrote:

    As I said, the government will follow rather than lead here. That’s not ignoring the report; I’m just saying that it’s in line with my expectations.

    Posted 21 Oct 2007 at 7:31 am

« He can keep the Nobel Prize
Anabasis, Book 2, Ch. 6 - first part »