What they believe

The denialists, the twenty-eight percenters, the hard-core war supporters should not surprise or interest me, but they do.

Most generally, most broadly, their fierce determination is just what one should expect from such a minority. Recall that, at one time, Bush’s policies had wide support. As the realities & consequences of his administration and his policies became evident over time, many people reconsidered their support of him. Anecdotally, before the 2004 election, a co-worker of mine, a 2000 Bush voter, had become disenchanted; I was quite taken aback. More famously, the blogger Andrew Sullivan, gave up on Bush before 2004. Just using these bloggers as representatives of a trend, John Cole gave up in 2005, the Schiavo affair being the last straw. Me? I had to read several of the “Fiasco” series books in summer 2006, before I got it. (As an aside, is there even one book covering the history of the Iraq War that supports the denialists? I’d like to read it.)

At each stage of this progression, the remaining Bush supporters were, by definition, more persistent than those who had “fallen away from truthiness.” Just viewed demographically, they are more hard-core, more stubborn. Admitting error is difficult; admitting error after a long time is more difficult; doing so after a very long time is very difficult.

Here’s an example from the Times over the weekend: Militants Widen Reach as Terror Seeps Out of Iraq

The Iraq war, which for years has drawn militants from around the world, is beginning to export fighters and the tactics they have honed in the insurgency to neighboring countries and beyond, according to American, European and Middle Eastern government officials and interviews with militant leaders in Lebanon, Jordan and London. Some of the fighters appear to be leaving as part of the waves of Iraqi refugees crossing borders that government officials acknowledge they struggle to control. But others are dispatched from Iraq for specific missions. Estimating the number of fighters leaving Iraq is at least as difficult as it has been to count foreign militants joining the insurgency. But early signs of an exodus are clear, and officials in the United States and the Middle East say the potential for veterans of the insurgency to spread far beyond Iraq is significant.

Many people have suggested that the war in Iraq, if viewed as part of the war on terror (a perspective that the denialists insist upon and that has some merit), may very well be counter-productive. That is, unlike fighting Nazis, our actions in Iraq may actually be creating more Islamic terrorism than we are eliminating. I call it starfish-ripping. What will the denialists make of such evidence? Either ignore it or attribute the to the evil MSM, which, of course, is out to destroy America. And so it goes. Most likely, this report, if they do read it, will only confirm their dark view of the traitorous press.

People have to cope. As such evidence unfolds, we roughly have two choices: 1) keep denying reality (”Hummelgate!“), or 2) admit some error and most likely beat yourself up at least a little bit (much to INDC Bill’s annoyance, this is what people do).

All of this means that the denialists’ caterwauling and ever-stronger insistence on their own righteousness should not surprise me. But I’m a slow learner, and, at times, it does.

A related part of this (not necessarily the most important part of their armor-plate) is their view of the backsliders. … Uh-oh. The Andrew Sullivans, the John Coles, the Commissars. It’s possible for the denialists to view liberals and Democrats and such as “reasonable people with whom we disagree.” Such a view is possible, but not very common. :)

On the other hand, what of the backsliders? People who once held their views? Could it be remotely possible that such people are also reasonable, intelligent people, who might have voted for Bush once or even twice, who perhaps are lifelong Republicans, and … after reading and thinking and considering the evidence have reluctantly concluded that the Bush administration has been pretty bad from the start? No. That is not a supportable perspective. It’s just too ruinous.

Rather, the backsliders must have at some point, mysteriously “gone nuts,” or all along have had some hidden character flaw that only now is revealed. By example, check out Goldstein and his commenters “Commissar excoriation” on this thread. I’m sure Cole and Sullivan and other backsliders had their similar moments of ritual banishment from the tribe.

“But … we are, THANK GOD, not Democrats.”

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Comments

  1. John the Marine wrote:

    I guess, to a certain extent, I’m a denialist. To me it isn’t that the war is or was un-winable. Its that Bush’s mismanagement has made a mess out of things to the point where the political will to do what is needed to win, no longer exist.

    In my mind this is truly a sad state of affairs because we aren’t being defeated by Islamic Terror, but instead by D.C. stupidity.

  2. canuckistani wrote:

    Sorry JtM, just the fact that you are aware that things are going badly means you aren’t a denialist. Doesn’t mean you’re right :-) but at least you aren’t crazy.

  3. commissar wrote:

    JtM makes a good point. If we look back, and suppose that the occupation of Iraq had been handled better in 2003-04, it’s possible that the insurgency would not have blossomed. And, in that case, things would look a lot better in Iraq today.

    I’d ‘extend’ JtM’s comment to say that Bush’s incompetence has not merely damaged domestic political support, but the actual situation in Iraq as well.

  4. Tim F wrote:

    “Rather, the backsliders must have at some point, mysteriously “gone nuts,” or all along have had some hidden character flaw that only now is revealed. ”

    In my experience the standard answer seems to be that you and Cole have become captive to your kooky kossack readers and slavishly devoted to their approval. It seems to serve several needs at once, by both dismissing the converts as mentally unsound and weak of character and also explaining away the change.

    If you think that makes no sense at all, remember that these are the geniuses who promised candy and flowers.

  5. Dreggas wrote:

    If we look back, and suppose that the occupation of Iraq had been handled better in 2003-04, it’s possible that the insurgency would not have blossomed.

    Well, historically speaking, the results were predictable. Iraq was arbitrarily created in the first place and really was a cross section of sunni, shia and kurd. It was only through a dictator brutally repressing one or more factions that the country even stayed together.

    Add to that the fact that Iraqi’s (the tribes themselves) resented any occupation of their lands after having been under british rule.

    If bush had been even the least bit curious he might have learned this stuff. Of course, had he listened to the commander’s on the ground (and not the one’s in his head) in the first place then things might have turned out differently. However I don’t think it would have.

  6. John the Marine wrote:

    If we look back, and suppose that the occupation of Iraq had been handled better in 2003-04, it’s possible that the insurgency would not have blossomed.

    Yes, indeed. If we had used more troops, If we had struck sooner, If we had tried to utilize communicating a message via radio (and or other means). If, If, but we didn’t.

    Well, historically speaking, the results were predictable. Iraq was arbitrarily created in the first place and really was a cross section of sunni, shia and kurd. It was only through a dictator brutally repressing one or more factions that the country even stayed together.

    Predictable only in the sense that bad management was bound to create a certain set of circumstances. The future is not predetermined by the past. However, the past can be used to learn lessons so that the same mistakes aren’t repeated and successful tactics and strategies can be used again. If Bush & Co had considered the above the picture in Iraq would be much different today.

  7. ZaMoose wrote:

    Admitting error is difficult; admitting error after a long time is more difficult; doing so after a very long time is very difficult.

    Funny, that. Best be admitting your error in re: “no” plans then, else it’ll get really difficult and then where will you “redeploy” to?

    Here, I’ll accept your label and apply it to myself:

    As a denialist, I actually view the Kossacks, DUers, etc. with a shred more sympathy than you. To me, it is obvious that they are wrong and largely unwilling to admit so, but they are consistent. However, the “backsliders”, the Coles and Sullivans of the world I view with slightly more disdain because of the fact that they have, in essence, sold out a point of view for what amounts to little more than an overemotional reaction to the going getting tough. The traditional American response — “The tough get going” — is tossed to the wayside in favor of denunciation and renunciation of views formerly held. I believe this to be a position of weakness, both intellectual and constitutionally.

    Instead of solutions, you are advocating for abdication. Instead of looking for a constructive way out (i.e., one that does not consign millions to the fate of the Shiites of ‘91), you metaphorically throw your hands up in disgust and wish to be rid of the whole mess. Instead of taking a look at the facts on the ground (things did not go swimmingly, mistakes were made, but things are getting better and need to be given time, care and feeding as these things are wont to do), you execute an incredible post hoc (inclomplete) examination and declare the whole undertaking to be a predestined failure.

    Once again, I hope I am making myself abundantly clear.

  8. commissar wrote:

    ZaMoose,

    you are advocating for abdication.

    Oh?

    Any commenters want to vouch for how many times I’ve said that if we had a different administration that said ’stay the course’ I’d accept that?

    declare the whole undertaking to be a predestined failure.

    Oh?

    I said quite the opposite right here above in comment #3, noting that failure was not predestined.

    Civil commenting is good. Civil comments that reply to what I’ve actually written are even better.

  9. Redhand wrote:

    (As an aside, is there even one book covering the history of the Iraq War that supports the denialists? I’d like to read it.)

    In 2004 John Keegan, the respected British military historian, wrote a largely positive account of the initial campaign entitled The Iraq War. However, by the time the first Vintage Books edition was published in 2005 it contained a postscript that duly noted the emerging chaos.

  10. ZaMoose wrote:

    Now color me confused, Commissar, but are you claiming that, were someone other than Bush in office, “stay the course” would be 100%-A-OKAY with you?

  11. Seixon wrote:

    Hummelgate was denying reality? Excuse me, but Larry Johnson, Patrick Lang, and Karen DeYoung at the Washington Post ginned up a tempest in a teapot. Johnson cried about a “collapse” in the supply line, claiming that the troops were getting less than three meals a day, and that this showed the ominous vulnerability of the supply line from Kuwait.

    Yet there was no collapse in the supply, troops didn’t even have to resort to eating MREs, and there was no breach in the supply line.

    The fake-but-accurate memo peddled by Lang and Johnson was written on Monday last week, notifying that there MIGHT be some delays, and that they MIGHT have to do without fresh fruit and vegetables. By Wednesday when DeYoung wrote the article, the convoys were already there unloading the trucks, as DeYoung hid away for last.

    This was a case, like so often, where anti-war goons took a POSSIBLE short-term problem and made it into “WE ARE HURTING OUR TROOPS - PETRAEUS SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF HIMSELF - THE TROOPS ARE STARVING - OH JESUS HELP US ALL”.

    Greenwald, you commissar, and the rest of the dishonest anti-war brigade completely sidestep this simple inescapable and inexusable truth.

    How was Hummelgate “denying reality” at all? It was all about showing what a lying ******* people like Larry Johnson are, and that they will do anything, ANYTHING, in order to further their political aims, such as peddling an obvious fake-but-accurate memo.

    Never mind that the contents of the memo completely debunked what Larry wrote, because you god damn goons didn’t care about what the memo said in the first place.

    Yes, that’s you denying the reality that:

    1. The memo looked fake as hell, and the US military Public Affairs Officer in Baghdad even said so.

    2. There was no food shortage, there was no crisis.

    Instead you concocted your own reality and ran with it.

    PS. Commissar, it seems you are unable to wrestle with the concept of being pro-Iraq invasion, but not necessarily pro-Bush. The idea of invading Iraq has little to do with Bush if you step outside the partisan political arena for just a second. It is fully possible to endorse the idea of removing Saddam Hussein by force (such as Al Gore did back in 2002, among many other current History Revisionists) without having to endorse Bush as a politician or a president. The removal of Saddam Hussein is a single issue, and by golly, the idea preceded Bush’s tour in the White House.

  12. commissar wrote:

    ZaMoose,

    I’ll restrain the urge to tell you to read my blog. I hate reading blog archives too. :)

    Let’s say I’d be 51% okay with it.

  13. ZaMoose wrote:

    So your quibble isn’t with the notion that we need to be there, it’s that we’re doing so under Bush’s watch?

    Pardon my incredulity, paint me a Kantian if you wish, but if something’s right, it’s right, you dig?

    That notion just knocked another few points off my regard for you or your opinions, I’m sorry to say.

    I, too, despair at what has become of the Bush administration (see: meeting with the Iranians. On Memorial Day, fer Pete’s sake!, illegal immigration, Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzales, No Child Left Unprepared For A Standardized Test, unwillingness to even deign to respond to criticism or flak, etc.) but that doesn’t make me a “dead-ender”, nor willing to throw my hands up in disgust, as I believe the fight is worth continuing.

    Now, the Balkans, on the other hand, there’s a quagmire if I’ve ever seen one! Get out now!

    (I keed.)

  14. DavidC wrote:

    Of course, had he listened to the commander’s on the ground (and not the one’s in his head) in the first place then things might have turned out differently.

    I know it isn’t politically correct for non-military people to criticize the military, but it bears its fair share of blame for the situation in Iraq. It isn’t all just Bush and his cronies. I don’t recall any mass resignation of generals protesting the administration’s unrealistic war planning. So it appears that at least some of the generals on the ground either bought into the administration’s vision, or they didn’t object strongly enough to justify wrecking their careers.

    The military establishment doesn’t like counterinsurgency operations and didn’t effectively prepare for them in Iraq, despite the fact that an insurgency was the most likely military problem that might be encountered after occupation. And their strategy and tactics for supressing it have been less than effective.

    Bush, Rumsfeld and others may bear the lion’s share of the blame, but there’s plenty to go around for the current mess. It wasn’t simply a matter of not listening to the military.

  15. commissar wrote:

    ZaMoose,

    So your quibble isn’t with the notion that we need to be there, it’s that we’re doing so under Bush’s watch?

    More boring, PW-gotcha ****. What is it with you guys? Is terminal snarkiness and ‘have you stopped beating your wife’ genetic over there?

    I don’t pretend to have all the answers, or to know what is 100% A-OKAY, or to be clairvoyant.

    Right now, Iraq looks to me like a mess. It looks to me like we’re making it worse. So, hypothetically, make me President tomorrow, and I’d say, “Put ‘em in the chopper and come home.”

    But I’m not in charge. And I don’t know everything. And, the situation is complex.

    So, if a new administration, with its team of experts and intelligence (no jokes, please) looked it over, and said, “We gotta stay.” I’d reluctantly be okay with that.

    And by “new administration,” at this point, I mean “the administration of a new party.”

  16. ZaMoose wrote:

    …And what is it with you and your terminal sky-is-falling Chicken Little ****? My comment wasn’t snark, it was an honest question, because that’s what you were putting forward.

    You’re allowing yourself to be blinded to the progress that’s going on (have you read anything about the Anbar Awakening? You’d have to be a very cold S.O.B. to not gain some hope in your fellow man’s ability to make brave, rational decisions in the face of people that really like head chopping and throat slitting). It’s obvious that you’re wrapping yourself in negative reports and denying the existence of any evidence to the contrary. Go to MNF-I’s website (http://www.mnf-iraq.com, FTI) and read more of the facts, figures and stories that the NYT’s “analysis” is partly based upon.

    You’re basing your assessments on an incomplete picture and allowing despair a foothold. You can do better.

  17. Dreggas wrote:

    DavidC,

    Yes the generals do bear some of the blame, IE they saw what happened to Shinseki and other carreer officers and they shut up and did what they were told to do despite the fact that many of them most likely thought the plan was nuts.

    Had bush listened to the commander’s (like Shinseki and others) then we most likely wouldn’t be in the mess we are in. Instead, thanks to Rumsfelds arrogance, bush’s ignorance, and Cheney’s cooked intelligence we are in this mess.

    Then again had bush meant any of the things he said during the ‘00 campaign about not doing nation building we probably wouldn’t be there either.

  18. Josh wrote:

    Shorter ZaMoose:

    “We’re turning the corner. Don’t believe me? Just read this administration propaganda!”

  19. Alon Levy wrote:

    As a denialist, I actually view the Kossacks, DUers, etc. with a shred more sympathy than you. To me, it is obvious that they are wrong and largely unwilling to admit so, but they are consistent.

    What you say about DUers/Kossacks is myth. DUers never supported the war in the first place; if it had worked, they’d have looked for fringe reports to convince themselves it wasn’t working. In contrast, people like the Commissar gave the neocons three years to start producing results, and meanwhile defended the war against long-time critics.

    Megaprojects of indefinite length, especially wars, are inconsistent with several feedback mechanisms that make democracy the attractive political system that it is - free press, free speech, regular elections. The institutions that allow communist countries to try things over and over regardless of public opinion are the same institutions that allow them to starve a few million people without anyone knowing until after the fact.

    I once read an article by a conservative who said that the right looked for converts while the left looked for heretics. He was wrong. Moderates look for converts; radicals look for heretics. That’s why the first enemy of every radical is the moderate, especially his own side’s.

    Communism is based on the idea that extreme poverty is bad. All of its other ideas are too extreme for anyone to accept. That’s why it pains communists to see anyone accept the notion that extreme poverty is bad while still clinging to a basic capitalist framework. Libertarians are the same; the only attractive libertarian idea is that of freedom. Likewise, the only attractive radical feminist idea is that of gender equality. All further theories and positions of those radicals are too unpalatable. Neoconservatives are in practice as radical as all of those three groups.

    And like those three groups, neoconservatives often invent myths in order to convince themselves that disgruntled allies were never allies. That way, they don’t have to worry about who they alienate, since the alienated were never allies to begin with. Communists rant about how liberals are just capitalists in disguise; neoconservatives rant the same way about such moderate conservatives as Andrew Sullivan.

  20. commissar wrote:

    Alon,

    I think ZaMoose’s point was that DUers were consistent, and that my changing my mind in face of evidence was reprehensible.

    Extremists and hyper-partisans on any side of any debate always see “consistency” and “pig-headed obstinacy” as a virtue.

  21. canuckistani wrote:

    I know it isn’t politically correct for non-military people to criticize the military,

    Just to hijack the thread a bit, here is a comment I find astonishing. I’m not a military guy either, but I have friends and family who are, and frankly, none of them are above criticism. Remember, you are a citizen of a democracy, and the military serve you, not the other way around. If you see the military doing wrong, it is your duty to speak up and criticize them, because ultimately, they are acting on your behalf, and you will be judged by their actions.

  22. John the Marine wrote:

    you are a citizen of a democracy, and the military serve you, not the other way around. If you see the military doing wrong, it is your duty to speak up and criticize them, because ultimately, they are acting on your behalf, and you will be judged by their actions.

    God dam it, The next stinking Liberal who makes a sane point is going to get shot!

    All, kidding aside the Canadian is absolutely right. In a democracy we all have the right and obligation to observe and comment on the policies of our government, both civil and military. For example: I don’t have to be Black to know affirmative action is wrong and contrary to the 14th Ammd. or be a woman to support gender equality. If we were all limited to our own narrow self experience we wouldn’t be allowed to talk about much at all.

    I may not like your opinion, Hell, I might even call you some names but I will never demand silence from any oponent based on them not serving in the military.

    Back to thread. The part of the war that scares me the most is that Bush’s piss poor leadership is going to put a pinko in the White House. Which will lead to the U.N. commanding our foreign policy and wealth redistribution, gun control, nanny laws, victim politics, race baiting and more politcal correctness in general. Thanks W, good “F”ing job.

  23. Alon Levy wrote:

    Giuliani isn’t a pinko. He’s more liberal than Bush, sure, but he has a reputation for not taking orders from or listening to anyone.