The Bright Glow of Farsi-Shine
Shiite Militias: “We Use Nothing But Iranian Super-Bombs”
Or so we have been told. Allegedly, the Shiite militias in Iraq rely exclusively on Iranian-made EFP’s. I can see the ad on Moqtada’s TV, like an American toothpaste commercial: (smilingly, black-outfitted JAMmie) “I use to use ordinary IEDs, but no more, I find I can kill 250% more infidels with new & improved Farsi-brand EFP’s.”
At the recent US military briefing about the Iranian mortar shells given to Iraqi Shiite militias, it was reported that these super-bombs have killed 170 US troops since June, 2004. I’m sure that Shiite IED’s have killed American troops in Iraq. How many overall? If the Iranian EFP’s have killed 170 Americans, what fraction is that of the total.
I checked ICC, and queried out US fatalities since June 1, 2004 involving IEDs. There were 969. I downloaded the results into Excel, and looked at the geography of the incidents, thus:
- 82 in Shiite areas (including Eastern Baghdad)
- 471 in Sunni areas (including Western Baghdad)
- 416 unknown (including other parts of Baghdad, those who died in hospitals, and other smaller towns in Iraq)
- 969 TOTAL
Of the 553 (82+471) where the sect of the attacker can be reliably inferred, 15% of these deadly IED attacks were committed by Shiites. Extrapolated to the full set, that would be 144 overall. That’s right. Only 144 Shiite-IED related deaths since June 2004.
But 144 is less than 170. Perhaps my estimate of 144 is a little low. How many were killed by Shiite IEDs then? 150? 170? 200? If any reasonable estimate of Shiite-IED-inflicted deaths is used, one can see that 170 is an incredibly disproportionate share.
In general, homemade IED’s can be made from all sorts of materials: raw explosives (like C4), hand grenades, mines, artillery shells, RPG’s, etc. If we accept the recent report, then Shiite militias have, since June 2004, abandoned all other explosive sources for IEDs, and use ONLY the Iranian super-bombs. I do not doubt for a second that the Iranians have been arming the Shiite militias. But the 170 deaths from EFPs does not add up.
Someone somewhere is “cooking the books,” or making sh*t up, because these numbers don’t add up. There is now way that ALL Shiite IED attacks are using the Iranian super-bombs. Given the Bush admin’s history of cooking the books and making sh*t up, I might assume that the whole military background briefing on this is bogus. There may very well be Iranian weapons in Iraq, that have been used to kill Americans.
But, if this type of IED has killed 170 Americans, then the Shiites must have stopped using every other explosive in their IEDs. And that conclusion strains credibility. Perhaps “cooking the books” is unfair. It’s easy to imagine that some analyst was asked to come up with a total, of which EFPs may be a large fraction, and, in the course of putting together presentations, the numbers were conflated. In either case, it is sad day when the President of the United States has damaged the credibility of his administration so badly, that in a case like this, I am more likely to believe the Holocaust-denying government of Iran.
Always look on the bright side
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Pork chop? Lemme get my shades.
Bat signal answered
Get Out of Jail Free Week continues in Yemen