On killing 4,000 bad guys

Al Qaeda In Iraq: 4,000 Insurgents Dead

Good. Clearly better than 4,000 of our people getting killed. Outstanding military action. A great tactical success.

But what does my favorite “document of the month,” the U.S. Army Counterinsurgency Field Manual FM3-24, say about killing a lot of the enemy?

1-133. Unsuccessful practices:
Place priority on killing and capturing the enemy, not on engaging the population.

1-105. It is easier to cut an insurgency off and let it die than to kill every insurgent. Attempting to kill every insurgent is normally impossible. It can also be counterproductive, generating popular resentment, creating martyrs that motivate new recruits, and producing cycles of revenge. Dynamic insurgencies also replace losses quickly. A skillful counterinsurgent cuts off the sources of that recuperative power. Some can be reduced by redressing the social, political, and economic grievances that fuel the insurgency. Physical support can be cut off by population control or border security. International or local legal action might be required to limit financial support. As the host government increases its own legitimacy, the people begin to more actively assist it, eventually marginalizing and stigmatizing insurgents to the point where their legitimacy is destroyed. Victory is gained not when this isolation is achieved, but when it is permanently maintained by and with the active support of the populace.

1-131. Tactical Success Guarantees Nothing
When COL Harry Summers allegedly told a North Vietnamese counterpart in 1975 that “You know you never defeated us on the battlefield,” the reply supposedly was, “That may be so, but it is also irrelevant.” Military actions by themselves cannot achieve success in COIN. Tactical actions must not only be linked to operational and strategic military objectives, but also to the essential political goals of COIN. Without those connections, lives and resources may be wasted for no real gain.

What’s more, the manual says nothing about the importance of media references to the enemy as “terrorists,” rather than “insurgents.” Someone get Mattis and Petraeus on the horn, and tell ‘em to make their field manual “fit in” better with Brewfan’s shibboleths.

Well, then … since just plain killing the insurgents isn’t what Mattis and Petraeus have in mind, what do they suppose to be the goal of the kind of war we’re in?

1-90. The primary objective of any counterinsurgent is to foster the development of effective governance by a legitimate government. All governments rule through a combination of consent and coercion. Governments described as “legitimate” rule primarily with the consent of the governed, while those described as “illegitimate” tend to rely mainly or entirely on coercion. Their citizens obey the state for fear of the consequences of doing otherwise, rather than because they voluntarily accept its rule. A government that derives its powers from the governed tends to be accepted by its citizens as legitimate. It still uses coercion — for example, against criminals — but the bulk of the population voluntarily accepts its governance.

1-97. Military action can address the symptoms of a loss of legitimacy. However, restoring legitimacy can only be accomplished using all instruments of national power. Without the host-nation government achieving legitimacy, COIN cannot succeed.

“Developing effective governance by a legitimate government?” WTF? I think we should just kill as many ragheads as possible. Then they’ll come around.

Seriously, the key sentence is “Military action can address the symptoms of a loss of legitimacy,” most notably security and stability. That requires a lot of troops.

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Comments

  1. Hans wrote:

    Didn’t something like almost 3,000 of our guys and gals get killed also? A 4:3 ratio isn’t all that great, in my view.

  2. DavidC wrote:

    the key sentence is “Military action can address the symptoms of a loss of legitimacy,” most notably security and stability. That requires a lot of troops.

    I see the key sentence as “Without the host-nation government achieving legitimacy, COIN cannot succeed.” At this point how does flooding the country with U.S. troops — even if it were feasible — help establish the legitimacy of the Iraqi government? It seems to me that it would undermine the government, demonstrate by our actions that we believe the Iraqi military/security forces to be ineffective (despite having constantly touted their progress), and alienate more Iraqis, many of whom already see our current presence as an “occupation.”

  3. commissar wrote:

    DavidC,

    In the FM, you’ll see a bell curve, illustrating the notion that most people are indifferent. Don’t fall for the jihadi rhetoric; and don’t fall for ours. Most people just want to lead their lives in peace and security. (As an extreme example, pls let’s not get sidetracked, even the Nazis could get occupied Western Europeans to more or less go along.) The same was true in Vietnam. And the same is true today in Iraq — look at Fallujah.

    So, the sine qua non is security. If bombs aren’t going off, if people aren’t getting shot up, etc. most people go along with the established government. Don’t fall for the al-Jaz rhetoric of “alienated by occupation.”

    Step 1 in COIN is establishing security.

    At any rate, this whole concept is “in the book.” Sorry to hammer this, but I’m not spouting some random, odd, convenient viewpoint. It is accepted US military doctrine, and also common sense, and also borne out by history.

  4. DavidC wrote:

    Commissar,

    I don’t really disagree most of what you are saying in your comment above. You say:

    Step 1 in COIN is establishing security.

    At any rate, this whole concept is “in the book.” Sorry to hammer this, but I’m not spouting some random, odd, convenient viewpoint. It is accepted US military doctrine, and also common sense, and also borne out by history.

    I’m reading the same book, that’s why I mentioned a different line as being key. I merely disagree with your emphasis. You arguments appear to imply that you think we can turn the clock back to phase I of the war and start over. In my view that is totally unrealistic. We need to work with what we have, under the conditions as they currently stand. Military concerns do not operate in a vacuum and have to be adjusted based on the current political and military climate.

  5. commissar wrote:

    DavidC,
    I hear you on “we can’t start over.”

    And, if we want to talk about “realistic,” we’re not gonna put in half a million troops.

    I’m sure you agree that where we are now in Iraq offers only bad choices. More troops, stay-the-course, and cut-and-run are all bad options.

  6. DavidC wrote:

    “I’m sure you agree that where we are now in Iraq offers only bad choices. More troops, stay-the-course, and cut-and-run are all bad options.”

    Basically, yes. I prefer the “stay” option, with a change in “the course.” The key problem though, is to determine exactly what changes should be made. Unbiased assessments of the situation in Iraq are pretty hard to come by.

  7. reddog wrote:

    I have no clear conception of who we are fighting in Iraq. I don’t think anyone does, including the people we are fighting. This does not bode well for developing a winning strategy.