politburo diktat 2.0

Zeyad, at Healing Iraq writes:

Today it was all out war in Baghdad.Please don’t ask me whether I believe Iraq is on the verge of civil war yet or not. I have never experienced a civil war before, only regular ones. All I see is that both sides are engaged in tit-for-tat lynchings and summary executions. I see governmental forces openly taking sides or stepping aside. I see an occupation force that is clueless about what is going on in the country. I see politicians that distrust each other and continue to flame the situation for their own personal interests. I see Islamic clerics delivering fiery sermons against each other, then smile and hug each other at the end of the day in staged PR stunts. I see the country breaking into pieces. The frontlines between different districts of Baghdad are already clearly demarked and ready for the battle. I was stopped in my own neighbourhood yesterday by a watch team and questioned where I live and what I was doing in that area. I see other people curiously staring in each other’s faces on the street. I see hundreds of people disappearing in the middle of the night and their corpses surfacing next day with electric drill holes in them. I see people blown up to smithereens because a brainwashed virgin seeker targeted a crowded market or café. I see all that and more.

Don’t you dare chastise me for writing about what I see in my country.

I’ve been reading Zeyad since he started his blog in late 2003. I’m quite certain he is Sunni, but as pro-American and open-minded as possible. Any reader can go check his archives and see for themselves. He has been as optimistic and positive as possible, from the beginning. His blog is even titled “Healing Iraq.”

I also read that some Shi’ites are murmuring about a second betrayal by the U.S. (the first being our non-intervention after the first Gulf War when we encouraged them to revolt against Saddam, and then didn’t help them.)

Increasingly, the Shiites (who we installed by virtue of their majority), are becoming annoyed. Increasingly, Sunnis (who heretofore have fed the anti-American insurgency) are looking to Americans as protectors.

The shit is hitting the fan. And it is not going to be good. I fear it’s going to be like Zeyad writes, but a lot worse. There is no possible useful or potentially successful role we could play in such a conflict. What’s more, there is no way the Shi’ites (who dominate the government) are going to lose such a conflict.
If “victory” is a democratically-elected Iraqi government that can stand up to the terrorists, then we are very near that point, and should begin thinking about what we are going to do, when we reach that point.