politburo diktat 2.0

Iraqi officials checking results from some regions in Saturday’s constitutional referendum said on Tuesday the audit did not imply fraud in the voting.

I have to wonder what samples these reports were based on. Entire provinces or smaller districts? I guess that the reports of 99% margins originated from specific localities. The normal process of vote counting and accumulation would suggest that provincial and national totals are only available at the end of the process.

If certain localities did show 99% margins, and such results do not pervade whole provinces, then those numbers might be accurate or perhaps the results of limited local fraud.

Iraq’s Electoral Commission said on Monday it would follow international practice by examining “unusually high” results from provinces which recorded margins of 90 percent or more in favour or against the new draft constitution.

The statement fueled debate over the bitterly fought referendum, with some Sunni Arab leaders suggesting the Shi’ite- and Kurdish-led government had fiddled with numbers to ensure passage of the U.S.-backed charter.

But Commission member Farid Ayar said on Tuesday that lopsided turnouts were not unexpected in Iraq, where historic sectarian divisions have been exacerbated by months of bloody ethnic and communal violence, polarising local results.

“It’s not surprising where you have 95 percent, for example, in Najaf … but we have to check,” Ayar told Reuters, referring a mainly Shi’ite southern province.

“If there is any result over 90 percent it is better to investigate those again. We are reviewing all the numbers, yes and no.”

The reports also mention both very high turnouts and/or very high margins. Again, it would be difficult to imagine that either analysis could have been completed at the provincial level.